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Analyzing Mathieu van der Poel’s Chances in Yorkshire

The upcoming men’s 2019 World Road Race Championships this Sunday features a 285-kilometer course in Northern England with several punishing climbs, and finishes with a tough, hilly circuit in Harrogate. The course favors all-around Classics riders who can master the climbs and either sprint from a select group or launch a well-timed solo move in the final few kilometers (like Peter Sagan in 2015, Michal Kwiatkowski in 2014, Philippe Gilbert in 2012, or Cadel Evans in 2009). But there is no safe bet with such an open race. Betting markets currently peg the emerging Dutch multi-discipline superstar Mathieu van der Poel, as the heavy favorite. This isn’t surprising, as van der Poel appears to be a once-in-a-generation talent. But as we covered in a previous piece, his main objective at the moment is the mountain biking title at the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo. When he has raced on the road...